If you’re an orange blooded Texas Longhorn football devotee like me, then you probably started reading the blogs, speculation, and commentary about three weeks before the season opening game against Rice University, September 4, 2010. Most of the writings validated what us close followers already knew. I didn’t see anything in the preseason blogs that surprised me.
The question of the day was just exactly what does a Champion Team like the Texas Longhorns look like with seven of their Key players missing. We just didn’t loose seven players, we lost seven Key Play-Makers. We watched for three and four years what the team looked like with Play-Makers like Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, Hunter Lawrence, Adam Ulatoski, Roddrick Muckelroy, Sergio Kindle, and Earl Thomas? But, what will the Longhorns look like without them.
Now that the Longhorns are two games into the season, we can start to add some observation to our speculation. For me, the Texas 34 - Rice 17 game went pretty much the way I expected it to go, with the exception of Gilbert’s performance. I expected Gilbert to come out strong and confident. Instead, he played pretty much like an average QB. Gilbert is a 5-star recruit. He’s not a regular player. Gilbert is a play-making QB, but it was his first official game as starting QB, and I guess he needed to play the part, although I thought the January 7, 2010 game where he stepped in after four minutes and took on the Nation’s #1 Alabama in a National Championship would have morphed him to the next level, strong, confident, and ready to dominate.
Gilbert is one of the few Play-Makers the Longhorns currently have . I would have given him a 70% against Rice, but he looked much better, more in control, confident, stronger during the Wyoming game, which deserved a 90% showing.
The coaches have a lot of investment in trying to do something with the Longhorn’s running game, and I think they were trying out their new ideas with the run against Rice, which went about as well as it has gone the past three years, basically nowhere. You could see the shift in the second game against Wyoming, with Gilbert and the pass dominating the game. That was a very smart decision to make. Unfortunately, most of the remaining seasons’ games will rest on the passing game.
There’s lots and lots of talk and speculation about the Texas Running game, and it is beginning to sound like a broken record. Texas has not had any Play-Making runners for at least four years now, and it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. McCoy was the leading rusher for Texas for several seasons. Vince Young, the same thing. San Antonio sports writers are all fired up because Greg Davis called the offense in for a special previewing of new chalkboard activity on runs and plays. The Austin paper is testosterone fixated, claiming that the coaches have come up with some new miracle speech that will morph average running backs into “Play-Making” running backs.
Dump the chalkboard lessons, get a grasp on the futility of testosterone pep talks, and bring in the footage of Malcolm Brown’s 33 touchdowns during his Junior year in High School. Malcolm will be at UT soon enough, but not in time to help our running game this year, but let’s look at that footage, and you’ll see something that cannot be drawn with lines on the chalkboard, and you’ll see something that doesn’t come from testosterone talk-a-thons.
Sure, he’s a high school kid, and can he do that on a college playing field? Malcolm does two things well. First, he can sprint like the devil. He can outrun anyone on the field, which is a nice attribute for a running back, but it’s basically useless if you are tackled. In order to run, you need an open space, and open field. Newton, Magee, Johnson, and Whittaker can all run. That’s not the problem with Texas’ running game. The problem with the Texas running game is they can’t get past the defensive line like Malcolm can, and into an open space to run.
That’s the part that Malcolm does very well, and the biggest muscle operating to make that happen is his brain, not his legs. Malcolm can improvise. He doesn’t just run the lines that were drawn on the board.
When a Malcolm Brown play is set up, Malcolm is already sizing up the field well before he even grabs the ball. He’s got a fast brain, and while the play may start out the way some offensive coordinator drew a line on the board, Malcolm is not thinking at all about those chalkboard lines. Within one to three seconds Malcolm has accomplished some amazing stuff inside his brain. He’s somehow looking in all directions at once, and looking at least 10 - 20 feet in front of him. That’s where he launches into improvisation mode, and starts to systematically move through the defensive line, 1/10th of a second at a time, jumping, turning, pushing, dodging, sliding off, one by one until he’s through the line. I don’t know where he learned it, but he’s practiced it now so many times, it’s almost intuitive, he can smell where the line is going to open, how to fake his direction, and when to move.
If you watch the footage of our present running backs, they’re trying to follow the line on the board that Greg Davis drew, and when they see someone in their path of the line, they bend down with helmet ready for the push. They’re looking 2 feet in front of them. Malcolm is looking with head up 20 feet in front of him, and completely to both sides of his periphery.
Vondrell McGee has been the only one that has come close to improvising several runs toward the end of last season. All of our other running backs attempt to play the play, without split second improvising. How did Malcolm learn to do that? He taught it to himself somehow, but how. Those are the questions we need to be spending our time on, not more chalkboard lines, not more testosterone pep-talks. Pumping someone up to be “tough” and just get “tougher” is really worn out. They’re already playing as tough as they can. What our running backs need is coaching on how to run smarter, not tougher. How do you do what Malcolm does?
Enough of the “we’re getting tougher,” we’re drawing more chalkboard lines. It’s old hat. If something is not working, you don’t do more of the same, or try the same thing harder, you vary your approach. And what’s with that Cody Johnson up the middle in practically all red zone conversions. We’re on the 3 yard line, 3rd down, Cody Johnson runs onto the field, you might as well just broadcast it on the Big Screen, “Hey, Johnson’s coming up the middle.” That’s an easily read play. It does work at least a few more times than that lateral pass play, which I’ve never seen work. Why is that play even in the play book? Instead of calling that play, why not just walk over to the official, hand them the ball, and say move us up one down, we’re calling a lateral pass.
The weakest links the Longhorns will have this season is with the Run. It’ been one of the two major weaknesses for the last three years. So, coaches, let’s put some action into teaching how to improvise, drills, skills, technique, practice, until they have the intuition for how to do it. Let’s figure out how to do it smarter, not tougher.
We haven’t had to criticize anything about the offensive line so far. While that was not necessarily a weakness last season, it was inconsistent. The reason we’re not seeing much fault with the offensive line so far is because Rice ranks #116 on the CBS 120 rankings, and Wyoming ranks #66. Our current Texas offensive line has not had to deal with a top 25 defense that will Blitz Gilbert at least 30 percent of the plays. I think I counted 1 solitary blitz from both the Rice and Wyoming games. I think Gilbert is up to that kind of attack. He’s a fast thinker. He can doge the incoming, and still keep his eye down field for opportunities.
I am expecting to see some weaknesses or at least some inconsistency with the offensive line as we move into playing out top 25 teams. I do think the NCAA gods have smiled on Texas with their schedule this season. It couldn’t be better for breaking in a new QB and a new team. Our only top 25 ranked games are in October against Oklahoma and Nebraska.
I think Gilbert is going to catch up pretty fast, and start showing Play-Making football. The Rice game probably showed him at his lowest. He threw a nice 31 yard pass to Chiles, inches from the goal, then hit Williams perfectly three times for 77 yards. He finished 14 of 23 for 172 yards, 60% accuracy, nothing to brag about. Those were his high points. He made some mistakes.
He threw two passes at least 20 yards shy of the intended receiver, and he wasn’t throwing the ball away either. He threw three passes that were too close to possible interceptions, which Rice couldn’t get hold of, but Nebraska or Oklahoma won’t miss those opportunities. He’s haphazard at evaluating interception potential with his plays. There’s some fast judgment flying through a Quarter Back’s mind at the snap, multitasking to the max, reading down field, watching the line and blitzes, and each option must also be evaluated for interception potential, which means looking at the coverage and reading them as well. In the Rice game he came away with zero interceptions, but it would have been at least three playing Nebraska. A QB has got to read those interceptions as well as the delivery.
Gilbert is not watching Interception potential The obvious one in the Wyoming game was the long down field pass to the goal line where the intended receiver had double coverage. There were 6 hands that were within reach of that ball. Beautiful throw, just a bad decision to throw into that kind of coverage. At the very least the ball would be deflected, or at worst intercepted. He was throwing a one shot in a hundred, bad judgment, unless it’s the last play of the game and you have no other choice.
As I said, Gilbert is going to catch up very quickly. He’s 5-star material, and once he gets a few things tweaked out, he’s going to be our play-maker. He won’t be taking the Longhorns to a BCS title game this year, but he does have the potential to get our 10+ wins for a school record of 10 consecutive 10+ wins. Gilbert is certainly BCS title game material, he just doesn’t have the correct team around him to do that this year. We’ll leave that for next year, when our 5-star recruits show up as starters.
This recruiting season Mack Brown took in 5 more 5-Star recruits than Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma combined. One of them, Malcolm Brown, will finally give the Longhorns a running game to count on. And with our Longhorns making good in the NFL, Texas will be an easy sell for 2012 recruits.
With two and three years of experience under Gilbert’s belt, and 5-star recruits all over the field, 2011 and 2012 will be big seasons for the Texas Longhorns. The mere mention of Texas Longhorns will strike fear in coaches and players alike.
And how about that Colt McCoy. He struggled during the preseason, but as the rookie starter QB in the Brown’s first game, he was 13 for 13 and 131 yards in the first half. Then Earl Thomas, the second best safety in the nation, snatches a pass from seasoned veteran Brett Farve, and runs it in for an 86 yard TD.
We’re going to miss Thomas. He was one of our biggest Play-Makers. You could count on him to make almost one interception per game, eight interceptions his sophomore year. Muschamp will probably switch out several players in that position, with Blake Gideon playing safety much of the time. And as far as the Texas defense, we lost Earl Thomas, but our defense is the least of our worries. They’re going to come out as a top 5 rated defense. Muschamp could take the cheer leading squad and turn them into a top rated defense.
The Passing game is going to dominate this season. We don’t have a Jordon Shipley, who just never dropped a pass, but with Kirkendoll, Chiles, Malcolm Williams, Marquise Goodwin, D.J. Monroe, and at least five freshmen receivers, we can switch them out enough to keep the opposition guessing, which is excellent strategy for dominating in the passing game.
The last key big time “Play-Maker” we’re going to miss is Hunter Lawrence. This guy just never missed, regardless of the pressure. This guy takes 1 kick, with 1 second on the clock, and makes good for a 1 point win. I didn’t know what we had in Justin Tucker, and then he came out with that 51 yard Field Goal, impressive. Then missed two, one was blocked. But the extra points he made all passed way too close to the left goal post.
So, to summarize where we are after two opening games:
We have a strong QB performer, who will get stronger with every game. He needs to watch interception potential. We have motivated receivers, enough of them to switch out plays for surprise. Watch the Shipley clips and figure out how he shakes off the coverage. The other thing Shipley did well was catch the ball whether in a dive, jump, or dead out run down field. Receivers, catch and hold onto the ball. We’ll probably have some inconsistency with the Offensive Line as we have had for the past several years, especially the closer we get to playing Oklahoma, Nebraska, even Baylor and A&M, and opposing teams start the blitzes. Next year’s recruits on OL are 6’4”, 6’7” 288 and 300 pounds, respectively. We don’t have a Hunter Lawrence, but a very capable Justin Tucker, who just needs a little work. Get that ball to the center of the posts. Our running game, well, I’ve already covered that. Get smarter, not tougher. The only running back who became a big time play maker being tougher was Earl Campbell, because he had 300 pound legs, and just drug the defensive line down field. The defense will be fine, although Earl Thomas was a very serious asset. In Muschamp we trust.
We’ll need to bring everything we’ve got to the Oklahoma and Nebraska games, and we’ll need to bring our best game to the Baylor Bear, A&M Aggie, and Texas Tech Red Raiders games. Everything else we can make a few mistakes and still win.
What’s ahead for Texas?
September 18, 2010 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Lubbock.
Texas Tech is rated 40th with CBS 120 rankings, but they’re winning games, 52 - 17 against New Mexico, the 3rd worst team in the CBS 120 rankings, and 35 - 27 against SMU, who ranks 61 in the CBS 120. So, the Red Raiders are performing below a top 25 team. If Texas improves as much between Wyoming and Texas Tech as we did between Rice and Wyoming, then the Red Raiders are going down. They’re breaking in a new coach, and lost much of their Play-Making talent as well, so my money is on Texas, although, the Red Raiders love to take down Longhorns, so they will bring their best game. Expect to play hard with few mistakes.
September 25, 2010 UCLA Bruins at Austin.
The UCLA Bruins has lost both of their season openers, hammered 35 - 0 by Stanford, who has moved into #19 of the AP top 25, and lost 22 - 31 to Kansas City, ranked #72 in the CBS 120. This should be a no-brainer for Texas, also.
October 2, 2010 at Dallas Cotton Bowl, Oklahoma Sooners
October 16, 2010 at Lincoln Memorial Stadium, Nebraska Cornhuskers
It’s the first two games in October that Texas will have to show up with all their mistakes and kinks ironed out, as they take on Oklahoma and then Nebraska, who are both running neck in neck with Texas in the top 25 rankings. These two games will be the first games of the season where Texas is evenly matched with opponents, and these will be the two games Texas will need to show up with everything they’ve got.
The Longhorns get a one week break between those two games, and too bad, Nebraska gets their week off between the 4th and 5th game. Nebraska will have to play Kansas State on October 7, 2010, while Texas is resting and eating tostitos. Kansas State CBS #47 took #74 UCLA, but struggled with a 31 - 22 win against a team that lost their next game against Stanford 35 - 0. Kansas State also took their second game against Missouri State 48 - 24. Expect Nebraska to deliver a pretty good whippin’ to the Kansas State Wildcats.
October 23, 2010 Iowa State at Austin
October 30, 2010 Baylor Bears at Austin
Iowa state is currently #78 on CBS 120. The Baylor Bears rank #68 on the CBS 120, but they are winning their games by very good margins. I expect the Baylor Bears and A&M to move up the ladder, and become possible threats to Texas. The good news with A&M is that we don’t have to travel to that darn Kyle Field, they’re coming to our turf. Baylor could possibly get lucky and become a threat to Texas, but it’s a home game which is in our interest, and as long as the Longhorns show consistent improvement as they have between the first two games, the Baylor Bears are going down.
November 6, 2010 Kansas Wildcats in Kansas
Kansas State Wildcats are rated #47 in CBS 120, but won both their season openers. All are non top 25 rated teams. Low rated teams are gaining good points on the board against Kansas State. That should be a Texas win.
November 11, 2010 Oklahoma State in Austin
Oklahoma State rated #44 on CBS 120, opened their season with a whopping 65 - 17 win over Washington State, ranked #99 in CBS 120, then a small margin win of 41 - 38 against Troy, who ranks #60 in CBS 120. Oklahoma State could gain in the ratings and refuse to become an easy win for Texas, but the game should go to Texas, especially if Texas keeps up the steady improvement they’ve already shown.
November 20, 2010 Florida Atlantic at Austin
Florida Atlantic Owls at #103 in CBS 120 are at 1 win and 1 loss, playing like a non top 25 team. So, again, another easy take down for the Horns.
November 25, 2010 Texas A&M Aggies at Austin
This will be our 12th game, but there won’t be any 12th man around, since the game will be played in DKR Memorial Stadium in Austin, home of the championship Texas Longhorns. A&M is currently rated #31 in CBS 120, and playing well, with a 48 - 7 win in their season opener against Stephen F. Austin, and a 48 - 16 win in their second game against Louisiana Tech. They have a very competent QB, and are taking games. They will be moving up the ranks, probably into the top 25 before they play Texas. Our advantage is that it will be a home game, but we will need to bring our best game.
The games against Oklahoma and Nebraska will definitely be evenly matched games, and Texas will have to bring their best game. Between now and then, both Oklahoma and Nebraska will be improving as well. The Baylor game and A&M game could end up being challenging games, because I expect both of those teams to advance in rank and skill. If Texas keeps with their current rate of improvement, then Texas Tech next week should not be a problem. If Texas drops back to the mistakes of the first game, expect Texas Tech to attempt a win.
Overall, I’m giving Texas their 10 games this season, which sets a school record. They could get lucky and make 11, but 12 would be a little too lucky. In either 2011 or 2012, I expect them to win 14, maybe back to back.
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