Right after the Kansas State Wildcats ran over the Longhorns 39 - 14 in week 9, and with three games left to play, I blogged that the beloved Texas Longhorns would have a 7 loss season, losing both to OSU and A&M, and, of course, avoiding a loss with Florida Atlantic.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys did whip up on the Longhorns 33 - 16 in week 10, which was our 6th loss, and our 4th Home game loss this season.  For some silly reason, before the Florida Atlantic game in week 11, I started playing around with some of the stats and saw that the particular match up between the offensive and defensive teams between Texas and A&M might open up a possible advantage for Texas.  I guess my orange blood went to my head and clouded my vision of reality, but I revised my prediction, and blogged that we could possibly take A&M, and changed my original prediction of a 7 loss season to a 6 loss season.

Then, I watched the Nebraska Cornhuskers take on the Texas A&M Aggies game in week 11 and was hit with the realization that the Longhorns have a better chance of putting a camel through the eye of a needle than beating the Aggies.

Of course we took the week 11 Florida Atlantic game, but even that game was not outside the realm of being lost, given our habitual pattern of mishaps, mistakes, and blunders this season.

I watched Greg Davis call the exact same play 5 times in a row early in the Florida Atlantic game from 3 and 4 yards out in the Red Zone, with no touchdown.  That’s when it struck me. I realized that there’s very little chance that our offense can play with any kind of intelligent offensive strategy or without the usual mishaps, mistakes, blunders, penalties, missed catches, dropped balls.  That’s just not going to happen.

During the FAU game, there were some nice throws, some good runs, but beating this team 51 - 17 is not exactly a confidence builder for a team that has had 162 consecutive weeks on the AP top 25.  I mean, FAU was beat by North Texas, which was the 2nd worst team in the country last year.  The only purpose this win served is to minimize the number of losses Mack Brown will be credited with this season, and it was a good work out.  We need to stay conditioned for Thursday’s game.  The win against FAU doesn’t say anything at all about who the Longhorns are as a team, they haven’t made a break through with their playing.  We beat a pretty low rated team, which we should have done.

The 63 yard touchdown pass to Kirkendoll in the 2nd quarter was awesome. It reminded me of McCoy and Shipley.  It was great to see Gilbert connect with such an accurate pass, and not be dropped.

The team that’s coming to Austin on Thanksgiving Day is bringing a collection of evil football eating monsters in their defense, and there is very little chance that our mistake prone offense will be able to put even one point on the board against that defense.  So, it will be sorta difficult to win the game with no points on the board.  They are also bringing a pretty good running game, which our defense is capable of stopping.  Whether we will stop their runners or not is a guess.  We have played some top 10 defense this season, and we have also botched at least two games with defense, UCLA and Kansas State.  We’ll need to play defense like we did with Baylor, except without the 3 missed touchdowns Baylor snuck past our defense.  I was not impressed with Tannehill’s passing game against Nebraska.

The Nebraska - A&M game was mostly a stalemate, between two very tough defensive teams, where no touchdowns were made, and it was really a matter of who finished with the most field goals when the clock ran out.  It didn’t help the Cornhuskers that Martinez was out most of the game with an ankle injury, and when he was playing he was not at 100%.  Should I mention that Bo Pelini does not like losing.  He walked across the field, shook Mike Sherman’s hand from about 10 feet away, didn’t say a word, and headed straight for the locker room.

Anyway, so now, the Nebraska - A&M game has me in a dilemma.  There’s maybe a 5% or 10% chance that Texas can take the game on Thanksgiving Day, maybe 1% or less, negative percentage, heck, I don’t know if it’s even in the realm of possibility.  And there’s about a 95% chance that A&M will beat up on us pretty bad.  I hope it’s not more than 20 points.

The Longhorn in me wants to believe that maybe the miracle will happen, and A&M will play bad like Nebraska did when they played the Longhorns, or that we’ll get lucky and make some big plays, maybe like the Hail Mary throw Gilbert did with a few seconds left in the 1st half of the FAU game.  Was that kewl or what?

But, the logical in me already knows the game is lost.

So, my dilemma is which way to go.  Do I concede the loss which my logical self knows will happen, or do I throw logic to the wind and say that out of the slight possibility we have to win, that we will indeed win?

If you’re a real Longhorn, you have to go with the right thing to do, and that is to say the Longhorns are going to take the day.  No one may really believe that, but that’s how I’m calling it.  Hook Em’ Horns.  Bring it on Mike Sherman and company.  A&M is on a 5 game winning streak, against some tough competitors, and their cups runneth over with testosterone, but we are the Texas Longhorns.  Since 1894 we have lost 36 games to Texas A&M.  We have won 75.  So, even if they beat us this Thanksgiving, A&M has quite a way to go before they’re even close to measuring up to the mighty Longhorns.

One thing that might help is to install special security at the stadium gates for detecting any attempt for a 12th man or 12th woman to enter the sacred DKR Memorial Stadium, and if detected, have them immediately arrested as terrorists.  Let em’ try playing without that 12th man and see how they do.

What About The 2011, 2012 Season?

Mack Brown took over as head coach in 1998, and had a 5 loss season in 1999.  Since then, and until now, 2010, all of his seasons have been 3 or less losses.  He has 9 consecutive 10 or more win seasons. He took us through a 2005 National Championship.  Well, I guess I should say that Vince Young gave us that championship in the last seconds of a game that looked like a certain loss. 

Mack Brown also took us to another National Championship in 2009.  One that I believe we would have won, if Colt McCoy would not have been taken out of the game with a shoulder injury at 4 minutes into the game.  We were already dominating the field. Our backup QB, Garrett Gilbert, had to play the remaining 56 minutes, which he did courageously, against the toughest team in the NCAA.  Before that championship game we had played Alabama 7 times, and won every game.  The 2009 Championship game was our first loss to Alabama ever.

The Texas Longhorns are the 2nd most winning team in the history of the NCAA.  We started playing football in 1893, and played that season without a coach.  We played 4 games, and held 3 opponents to zero point games. The next year, 1894, we held 6 opponents to zero point games.

We have 162 consecutive games on the AP top 25, and 9 consecutive years with 10 or more wins.  We are 4 time National Champions, and have the 2nd most all time NCAA Bowl appearances.  We are number 5 in all time NCAA Bowl wins. Mack Brown holds the highest win percentage in 117 years of Texas Longhorn football.  Darrell K. Royal holds the next highest win percentage. In season 2005 we scored 652 points in 13 games, which is an average of 50 points per game.

In the 13 years that Mack Brown has been head coach, 1998 - 2010, and if things come out as I’ve predicted, the Texas Longhorns will have won 138 games, and lost 35 games, and Mack Brown will walk away with only a 6 game loss season.  If A&M takes the field, then Mack Brown will be among the very few Texas coaches ever to have seen 7 or more losses in a given season.  That has happened only 4 other times in 117 years of Longhorn football.

The record is 9 losses in the 1956 season.  We saw an 8 loss season in 1938.  Then we saw two 7 loss seasons in 1988, and 1997.  Mack Brown took over then, in 1998, and hopefully he will not become a member of the 7 or more loss club.

The most losses per season that Fred Akers ever saw was 6 in 1986, which was also the year he retired as head coach after 10 years of coaching.  Coincidentally, coach Darrell Royal also retired after the year of his most losses.  He had a 5 loss season in 1976, and retired after 19 years of coaching.

Whether this season ends up a 6 or 7 loss season for Mack Brown, what I’m suggesting here is that the timing seems right.  Call it intuition, call it the winds of change are blowing, call it the Great Fathers of Football are gently speaking a message.

There could not be any better timing for Mack Brown to step down than at the end of this season.  Not because he lost 6 or 7 games this year, and not because anyone thinks he’s a bad coach, or because people are hot about things and want heads to roll, but because it makes sense.  It’s the right thing to do for the entire collection of the Texas Longhorn community, including the team.

Coach Brown is not a hands on coach like Will Muschamp.  Brown’s strengths have been as an organizer, a general manager, more like Tom Landry.  His strengths are in organizing his recruiting staff to do great work, in thinking ahead enough to keep Muschamp on staff, and on making sure all of the supportive mechanisms are top notch, for a top notch team.

Let’s give Muschamp a chance as head coach for the 2011, 2012 season.  He’s a seriously hands on coach, and knows football inside and out.  He’s got the drive, the determination, and he’ll just need some excellent scouting for coordinators. 

Coach Brown has served us well, and there’s no reason in the world why he wouldn’t step down now, except for pride.  Muschamp is ready to take the reigns, he’s ready to go at it fiercely, the Longhorns are ready for new blood, the new recruits want to know they’re coming into something different.  It’s the new and different that will energize the Team.

Coach Brown will retire as one of the best coaches in the 117 year history of our football program.  Fred Akers and Darrell Royal had no shame to retire on their worst seasons.  They knew it was time for a change, and they certainly had no doubts whatsoever that they had been some of the best coaches in college football.

Coach Brown missed a great deal of detail this season, starting with Spring training.  He is quoted after the Florida Atlantic game as telling his entire staff that he gives them an “F” for the season.  I agree, the worst thing that went wrong this season is that the details for training and preparing a new team for college level football did not get attended to, but who’s fault is that?  If it’s the staff’s job to attend to the training detail, isn’t it the head coaches job to see that the staff is doing that work.  Mack Brown missed this season by a mile or more, but I’m not suggesting he step down because he was an “F” rated coach for 2010.  I’m suggesting it because Muschamp is the better person for the job, and Mack should step down because it is what will give the 2011, 2012 Texas Longhorns the best chance of returning to a top 25 rated team.

I strongly believe that Mack should step down, and give Muschamp a chance with the 2011, 2012 recruits, but he won’t do that, although it was not beneath both the highly respected Darrell K Royal and Fred Akers for them to step down after their worst seasons, Mack Brown somehow believes he is better, and will not do what would be best for the team and entire Longhorn community.  Shame on you, Mack Brown.

Best of Luck Thanksgiving Day, Mighty Texas Longhorns.

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